Throughout 2024, our research findings provided critical insights into the health risks of urban living, air pollution, heat, and climate change, while also contributing to solutions to protect vulnerable populations.
Cities: a matter of balance
What type of city is the healthiest? Our analysis of 919 European cities found that compact cities have a lower carbon footprint, but a higher mortality rate due to increased air pollution and urban heat island effects (1). Despite these challenges, compact cities could still be the model of the future, if motorised transport is reduced and green spaces are expanded.
Heat: a growing impact
In 2023 – the warmest year on record globally and the second warmest in Europe – heat caused over 47,000 deaths across the continent. Without adaptation measures, this number would have been 80% higher (2). These figures follow those of 2022, when heat led to 60,000 deaths, half of which were due to anthropogenic warming (3). Women and people aged 80 and over were particularly affected. But heat not only means deaths. By analysing over 11 million hospital admissions in Spain over the past two decades, we found that heat significantly increased hospitalisations for conditions such as metabolic disorders, obesity, and renal failure (4). Children under one year of age and adults over 85 were the most vulnerable groups.
To better anticipate and mitigate heat-related risks, we launched Forecaster.health (5), an early warning system that predicts heat- and cold-related mortality in Europe by sex and age, factoring in multiple air pollutants.
Air pollution: local to global
Ground-level ozone is a harmful air pollutant. Our analysis across 35 European countries revealed that most of the ozone contributing to premature mortality in Europe originates beyond the region’s borders, underlining the need for coordinated actions at the local, regional and global level (6).
Forest and cropland fires also contribute to air pollution, and sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 70% of the total area burned worldwide. In Mozambique, fire-originated PM2.5 was associated with an increase in hospital visits among children, particularly for respiratory causes (7).
Climate: urgent action needed
In 2024 we contributed once again to The Lancet Countdown’s Europe Report (8), which tracks 42 health-related climate indicators. Although there has been a decrease in air pollution (PM2.5) over the past 15 years in Europe (9), this improvement is largely due to better control technologies — not reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The report warns that more ambitious actions are needed to protect health in a warming world.
References
- Iungman T et al. Lancet Planet Health
- Gallo E et al. Nat Med.
- Beck TM et al. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.
- Achebak H et al. Environ Health Perspect.
- https://forecaster.health/forecaster
- Achebak H et al. Nat Med.
- Curto A et al. Lancet Planet Health.
- Van Daalen KR et al. Lancet Public Health
- Chen ZY et al. Nat Comm.
